FAQ Section | Frequently Asked Questions
What happens here psychologically?
People systematically overestimate their abilities, their knowledge and their control over complex situations - especially after successes.
How does this distort decisions?
Risks are underestimated, rules are softened and counterarguments are ignored. Decisions become bigger, faster and less secure
Typical warning signal
Thoughts like:
: "This time I don't need any security" or "This is obvious".
Self-reflection
What assumption do I think is safe right now - and what if it's wrong?
What happens here psychologically?
Losses are felt much more strongly emotionally than gains of the same magnitude.
How does this distort decisions?
People hold on to bad decisions, avoid clear cuts and replace analysis with hope.
Typical warning signal
The desire to "at least get back to zero".
Self-reflection
Would I make this decision again today - without the previous loss?
What happens here psychologically?
Information that confirms one's own opinion is preferred; contradictory information is ignored or devalued
How does this distort decisions?
Decisions seem logical, although they have only been examined one-sidedly.
Typical warning signal
Criticism feels unfair, exaggerated or "unqualified."
Self-reflection
What information would refute my decision - and did I look for it?
What is happening here psychologically?
Recent events overlay long-term experiences and data.
How does this distort decisions?
Short-term developments determine decisions, although they have little statistical significance.
Typical warning signal
Frequent changes in direction following current events.
Self-reflection
How would I decide if I ignored the last few weeks?
What happens here psychologically?
Statements by supposed authorities are examined less critically
How does this distort decisions?
Arguments are replaced by names, titles or reputations.
Typical warning signal
"He knows what he's doing" replaces own examination.
Self-reflection
Would this argument convince me even without a sender?
What happens here psychologically?
People orient themselves towards the majority, especially in uncertain situations.
How does this distort decisions?
Group approval is confused with certainty.
Typical warning signal
Decisions feel "supported" or "obvious" because many people share them.
Self-reflection
What would I do if I had to decide alone?
What is happening here psychologically?
Past efforts influence current decisions - even though they are irrelevant.
How does this distort decisions?
Bad decisions are continued in order to justify the past.
Typical warning signal
"Now I've already invested so much."
Self-reflection
Would I start over today - yes or no?
What happens here psychologically?
Activity creates a feeling of control - even if it is objectively useless.
How does this distort decisions?
Action replaces quality; rest is confused with inactivity.
Typical warning signal
Restlessness without having gained new information.
Self-reflection
Does this action improve my situation - or just my feelings?
What happens here psychologically?
Decisions are evaluated according to their result, not their quality.
How does this distort decisions?
Luck is confused with competence, mistakes are ignored in the case of success.
Typical warning signal
No analysis after positive results
Self-reflection
Would I evaluate this decision in the same way if the outcome had been different?
What happens here psychologically?
Random or external factors are perceived as influenceable.
How does this distort decisions?
Risks are underestimated, interventions overestimated.
Typical warning signal
Excessive intervention without new insights.
Self-reflection
What is really within my influence - and what is not?
What happens here psychologically?
An initially perceived value or impression unconsciously serves as a reference point for all further assessments
How does this distort decisions?
Later assessments are based on the anchor - even if it is factually irrelevant.
Typical warning signal
"In comparison, this seems favorable / harmless / small."
Self-reflection
What would I base my decision on if this first value did not exist?
What is happening here psychologically?
The way it is presented influences perception more than the content itself.
How does this distort decisions?
Identical facts lead to different decisions - depending on the wording.
Typical warning signal
Strong reaction to words such as "opportunity", "security", "loss avoidance"
Self-reflection
How would I decide if the same facts were formulated neutrally?
What is happening here psychologically?
Easily remembered or emotionally charged information is overrated.
How does this distort decisions?
Rare but present events seem more likely than they are.
Typical warning signal
"I've just seen/heard that everywhere."
Self-reflection
Is it really frequent - or just present?
What happens here psychologically?
Negative information has a stronger effect and is remembered longer than positive information.
How does this distort decisions?
Risks are overemphasized, opportunities are systematically underestimated.
Typical warning signal
A single negative detail overshadows the overall picture.
Self-reflection
What would my decision look like if I weighted positives and negatives equally?
What happens here psychologically?
Things or positions that you own are valued more highly than objectively justified.
How does this distort decisions?
Disconnection is more difficult than getting started; objectivity is lost.
Typical warning signal
"I've gotten used to it."
Self-reflection
Would I evaluate it the same way today if it didn't belong to me?