FAQ Section | Frequently Asked Questions
What is happening here psychologically?
Past events appear more predictable in retrospect than they were.
How does this distort decisions?
Learning is distorted because uncertainty is retroactively faded out.
Typical warning signal
"That was obvious."
Self-reflection
Would I really have known that before - or just now?
What happens here psychologically?
People with little knowledge overestimate themselves, experts underestimate themselves
How does this distort decisions?
Complexity is underestimated, learning needs are not recognized.
Typical warning signal
Rapid certainty on complex topics.
Self-reflection
What do I know for sure - and what do I only think I know?
What happens here psychologically?
The own future is assessed more positively than statistically justified.
How does this distort decisions?
Risks are relativized, worst-case scenarios are ignored.
Typical warning signal
"It will be different for me."
Self-reflection
What would be my realistic worst-case scenario?
What happens here psychologically?
Existing conditions are preferred - simply because they are familiar.
How does this distort decisions?
Changes are avoided, even if they would be objectively sensible.
Typical warning signal
"Better not to change anything."
Self-reflection
Would I consciously choose this state today?
What happens here psychologically?
Contradictions between conviction and reality create inner stress.
How does this distort decisions?
Facts are reinterpreted in order to protect one's own self-image.
Typical warning signal
justifications instead of reassessment.
Self-reflection
What would I have to accept in order to honestly change my opinion?
What happens here?
Complexity is unconsciously hidden. Overconfidence, confirmation bias and illusion of control work together.
Why dangerous?
Certainty does not arise from knowledge, but from emotional smoothing.
Stop moment
What exactly makes me so certain right now - and is that verifiable?
What happens here?
Action bias + time pressure. Activity is confused with control
Why dangerous
Urgency shortens thought processes and lowers error tolerance
Stop moment
What objectively deteriorates if I do nothing for 24 hours?
What's happening here?
Social proof overrides self-judgment.
Why dangerous?
Groups reinforce conviction - not quality.
Stop moment
What arguments would I have if no one else existed?
What happens here?
Confirmation bias. Contradiction is unconsciously filtered.
Why is this dangerous?
A decision without cross-checking is not a decision, but a confirmation.
Stop moment
What seriously speaks against my own position?
What's happening here?
Sunk cost fallacy + loss aversion.
Why dangerous?
Past begins to dictate future.
Stop moment
If I were to start from scratch today - would that be my first step?
What happens here?
Cognitive dissonance. The self-image is threatened.
Why dangerous?
Emotional defense replaces factual reassessment.
Stop moment
What exactly is hurting me right now - my argument or my ego?
What happens here?
Optimism Bias + Illusion of Uniqueness.
Why dangerous?
Exceptions are declared the rule - without evidence.
Stop Moment
What specifically distinguishes this situation from similar ones before?
What's happening here?
Endowment effect + identification.
Why dangerous?
Proximity distorts evaluation.
Stop moment
How would I evaluate this if it had nothing to do with me?
What happens here?
Hindsight bias. Uncertainty is retroactively erased
Why dangerous
Learning is distorted because errors are not recognized as such
Stop moment
What information did I really have at the time of the decision?
What's happening here?
Negotiating uncertainty
Why dangerous?
Worst-case thinking is dismissed as pessimism
Stop moment
What is the realistically worst-case scenario - and can I stand it?