Because it determines the actual influence of a decision. Even a good idea can lead to disproportionate losses if the position size is wrong. Risk is not created by the idea, but by its weighting
Do: Limit position sizes consistently
Don't: Express conviction with size
Between the lines: Conviction does not protect against math.
Because it leaves no margin for error. Markets are not binary, but probabilistic. If you bet everything on one assumption, you implicitly accept the risk of total failure - regardless of how plausible the idea appears
Do: Always allow for buffers for errors
Don't: Focus capital on individual scenarios
Between the lines: Safety comes from margin, not courage.
Because it often arises from a desire to correct losses, not from a new, better assessment. Backfiring changes the original risk profile and shifts decisions from analysis to hope
Do: Plan decisions in advance
Don't: Want to "fix" losses
Between the lines: Hope is not a risk tool.
Because they signal control. Small, controlled losses show that rules are being adhered to and risks remain limited. Avoiding small losses often leads to large ones - with much more serious consequences
Do: Accept losses early
Don't: Sit out losses to "be right"
Between the lines: Discipline costs in the short term - indiscipline in the long term.
Because they distort decisions. Fear, greed or euphoria change perception and willingness to take risks - often unnoticed. Markets do not react to emotions, but decisions do.
Do: Recognize and classify emotions
Don't: Use emotions as a basis for decision-making
Between the lines: Emotions are human - decisions should not be.
Because it ignores warning signals. Those who are too sure of themselves question assumptions less, ignore counterarguments and unconsciously increase risks. Ignorance at least knows that it has to learn
Do: Question your own assumptions regularly
Don't: Confuse safety with competence
Between the lines: Overconfidence often masquerades as experience.
Because losses have a stronger psychological impact than gains. The desire to avoid or "recoup" losses often leads to irrational behavior - such as holding on for a long time or making uncontrolled additional investments
Do: Make decisions regardless of past performance
Don't: Use past losses as a reference point
Between the lines: Markets don't know memory - people do.
Because intuition is highly dependent on the situation. In stressful or emotionally charged moments, the brain resorts to simplifications. Self-control creates distance between impulse and action
Do: Define rules and processes in advance
Don't: Overestimate spontaneous intuitions
Between the lines: Control arises before the decision, not during it.
Because distance creates clarity. Constant preoccupation increases emotional attachment and pressure to make decisions. Breaks help to recognize patterns, reflect on mistakes and reduce emotional tension
Do: Take regular breaks
Don't: Confuse constant activity with discipline
Between the lines: Distance is not a retreat, but a change of perspective.
Because visibility says nothing about substance. High attention can be generated by timing, communication or coincidence - not necessarily by good decisions. Quality often works quietly, popularity loudly
Do: Evaluate decisions independently of reach
Don't: Equate popularity with competence
Between the lines: Volume is not proof of correctness.
Because they signal social approval, not substantive quality. Public reactions are easy to influence and rarely reflect risk, consistency or decision-making logic. Approval is no substitute for analysis
Do: Critically review content, don't count reactions
Don't: Use social confirmation as a basis for decision-making
Between the lines: Applause is quickly distributed - losses are not.
Because responsibility dissolves in the collective. In groups, the individual inhibition threshold for taking risks decreases, as decisions are shared emotionally. Doubts are expressed less frequently, opposing views are ignored
Do: Make your own decisions independently
Don't: Confuse group feeling with safety
Between the lines: Shared euphoria does not reduce risk.
Because markets do not function democratically. Majorities are often right where there is little at stake - and wrong where decisions are inconvenient. Consensus often only emerges after opportunities have disappeared
Do: Objectively examine minority opinions
Don't: Use consensus as a shield
Between the lines: Consensus usually comes too late.
Because they are less dependent on external confirmation. Silent, consistent approaches focus on process and discipline rather than external impact. Robustness is demonstrated by perseverance, not by explaining
Do: Prioritize process over presentation
Don't: Prioritize external impact over quality of results
Between the lines: Those who constantly explain often decide less.
Because data alone has no meaning. Figures, charts or key figures only develop their value in the context of time, market phase, risk and objectives. Without classification, they create a false sense of security
Do: Always interpret information in context
Don't: Confuse data with insight
Between the lines: More information does not automatically mean more understanding.